Need A Miracle

Have You Ever Experienced a Miracle?

On Friday, we decided to take on a big hike with friends for my birthday. After the pandemic, many state and national parks started requiring reservations or tickets to hike the more popular trails. Some of these tickets are released months in advance, while others drop just days before. Thankfully, Manuel managed to get enough tickets for the hike, not the one we wanted but still a great trail, and for some reason, he felt the need to grab an extra one. No real reason—just because.

The morning of the hike, we arrived at the trailhead, smoke filled the air from a nearby wildfire. It was hazy enough to make us wonder if the hike was even worth it. Annoyed, we stood around for a bit, debating whether to press on. Eventually, we decided to go for it.

As we approached the trailhead, we noticed a park ranger talking to a man who was outfitted like an ultramarathon runner. He looked frustrated and said something along the lines of, “I don’t know, I guess I was hoping for a miracle.” We ultimately realized he had shown up without a ticket and was being turned away. And here we were, with an extra ticket in hand. What are the odds?

Without hesitation, Manuel offered it to him. The man stared in disbelief, as if we’d handed him a lifeline.

It was such a small act, but in that moment, it felt important.

Later, as we trekked along the trail, the same man sped past us with a grin on his face, calling out, "Thanks for the miracle!"

That moment has stayed with me the entire day.

“There are only two ways to live your life: one is as though nothing is a miracle, and the other is as though everything is.” — Albert Einstein

Here’s the thing about miracles:

Miracles come from what you already have, not what you don’t (think fishes and loaves)

God makes a way when there is no way

God uses little things to make big things happen

If we approach our work—and life—with open eyes and an open mind, we’ll start to see that opportunities, or “miracles,” are everywhere. You just have to be ready when the moment arises.

You’ll be surprised what you see once you start looking :)

Notes that Resonated

90% of success is about not getting distracted
The thing that will separate you from the rest is drive
Happiness is not the absence of problems. It’s the ability to manage through them
You’re not stressed because you are doing too much you are stressed because you are doing too little of what you love
The lessons you struggle with will repeat until you learn from them
The secret is… there is no secret.

Consistency over intensity
Progress over perfection
Basics over fads
Wash, rinse, repeat

Market Update

Mixed Signals and Rising Volatility

We are seeing some interesting dynamics play out across the financial landscape. Increasing oil prices, combined with higher PMI data, started to fuel concerns about a potential rebound in inflation—right up until Friday’s jobs report dropped. The much better-than-expected jobs data triggered a massive swing in rates, wiping out the gains the market saw after last month’s Fed announcement. For perspective, it's rare to see the market move more than 0.2% in a single day, but Friday's report swung the pendulum hard.

With 16 out of the last 19 jobs reports being revised down, even if we’re seeing stronger-than-expected data now, we could see a downward revision in weeks to come. Once again, the bond traders seem to be getting too far ahead of the Fed and the market conditions.

The Fed and Rate Expectations

The market is currently pricing in a 93% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in November. But with mixed economic signals flying in from all directions, predicting the Fed's next move is anything but straightforward. Bonds are currently trading below their 50-day moving average and have a ton of room to fall more some here. Buyers should continue to expect upward pressure on rates until there are additional signs inflation has cooled or the jobs market wains as more economic data is released.

The Push and Pull in the Markets

Right now, we’re navigating a market full of contradictions. Stocks are rallying, but so are safe-haven assets like gold. Oil’s climbing, adding inflationary pressure, but at the same time, there's talk of a recession. These mixed signals are making it difficult to predict where the market will go from here.

Oil prices surged 9% last week, reigniting inflation fears.
48% of homes on the market have been listed for over 60 days—marking the fifth consecutive month of rising Days on Market
The S&P 500 posted its second-highest close in history and now trades less than 0.5% away from an all-time high.

Short-term rental listings hit a record 1.74 million in August—up 75%. Yet, rental income has declined since 2022, and demand has softened. There’s growing speculation that this could lead to more inventory hitting the market.
The Dow hit a record high on Friday signaling no recession on the horizon, yet gold is climbing as if we're headed toward one.
Jobs reports printed strong, yet companies continue reporting layoffs.
Crypto is retreating as risk aversion takes hold. Yet tech stocks continue to rise, embracing risk.

With so many forces at play, the road ahead will likely remain bumpy, with the potential for more unexpected shifts in the months to come.

Videos to watch

A personal challenge. I’m thinking about training to hike Kilimanjaro. Then going on to basecamp at Everest. Anyone game?

https://youtu.be/aGrc_kgAsJk?si=EO_SoFxY9MpYc8iP

Top Quotes

“A gem cannot be polished without friction, nor a man perfected without trials” - Seneca
“Some people want it to happen, some wish it would happen, others make it happen” - Michael Jordan
“There are only two ways to live your life. One is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is.” —attributed to ALBERT EINSTEIN.