Standing up for what is right
First, they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
—Martin Niemöller
My daughter first introduced this quote to me over a year ago. When she introduced it to me, I found it poetic and memorable. But, since I try to make standing up for others part of my convictions, and I have been blessed to not have needed someone to stand up for me in the past, the quote only resonated with me on a surface level. That is until this week, when I was on the receiving end of someone speaking out for what they believed was right.
It can be hard to stand up for what is right. It can be hard to get involved when it’s not your fight. “But real courage and character is shown when a bystander decides to step up and refuses to tolerate behavior that he or she knows is wrong.” (Dare to fly by Martha McSally)
Often, we pass right by something we see is wrong and think it’s not my fight. I had nothing to do with it. It doesn’t affect me. Sometimes we even think we are doing the right thing by keeping our mouths shut and not feeding the drama.
But after being on the receiving end of someone standing up for what is right, by someone who didn’t have a dog in the fight, I can’t tell you how much it means to the person you are standing up for…. Take the time and effort and always stand up for what you think is right. Someday you may need someone to stand up for you.
Mortgage Rates
What’s going on with rates? Why are we back to November levels? Why did the slight increase in inflation data effect rates so quickly and dramatically?
In short, the market got ahead of itself in December. As inflation started to reduce and the Fed seemed confident in its 4-rate cut plan for 2024, the market began to price in those cuts along with a 70-80% chance of a soft landing. In return, we saw our mortgage rates decline. With the release of most recent economic numbers there is increasing concern that 4 rate cuts will not be possible in 2024. In fact, several experts are beginning to speculate that the Fed may even have to increase rates this summer. Jamie Dimon commented in his annual shareholders letter this month that his bank is prepared for rates to climb to 8%. This along with comments that the allusive threading of the needle by the Fed was beginning to be less likely has caused the market to react strongly. At this point unless the next round of data is significantly softer or the Fed reassures the market that the cuts are coming, (which is not likely) we can expect a rise in volatility and the potential for relatively sharp and rapid increases in rates until the economic data begins to cool more decisively. But this is a double edge sword for real estate. If the economy tanks, so will the home buying demand. If the economy doesn’t decline, rates will stay higher for longer.
Even though the Fed has been very clear that inflation decline would be a bumpy ride and that they still expect to cut rates this year, investors are eager to see the proof in the pudding. Several Fed officials are slated to speak throughout the week, starting with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (in Tokyo) on Monday. These conversations should give us greater insight to what they are thinking but could also lead to increased volatility in our rates. Make sure you are vigilant with your loan locks. And if you are pricing forward commitments and extended locks proceed with caution, this market can bite you very quickly.
The mortgage industry still has a long way to go from here. We are not out of the woods, and I expect more drama to come. Focus on the blocking and tackling and the strong will thrive.
Notes that Resonated
The best stories of life are built in the messiest of moments
The closer you are to nature the father you are from idiots
Never wait for the perfect moment or it will pass you
Look for a fresh way forward
Plan and train harder than your competition
None of us is born either brave or fearful
“Courage isn't magic or genetics. It is a choice. By choosing to do things afraid, you discover your own power to overcome.” - Martha McSally
Being brave isn’t the absence of fear, it’s “piloting the boat” afraid
“Piloting the boat” afraid kills the power of the fear and creates a muscle memory of bravery
“Piloting the boat” afraid is what creates success
You can’t go back, and you can’t cling to a season that has passed. You can’t go forward and replicate it either. You can only chart a new way forward
Do the next right thing
Things to read
Dare to fly:
Simple Lessons in Never giving Up
This is a great autobiography of Martha McSally a female fighter pilot that pushed past fear, adversity, and pain to achieve her highest potential. Her story and lifelong commitment to standing up for others is truly inspirational.
Videos to watch
Increase your Longevity- Heal with Food (link between Milk and Cancer)
Top Quotes
“Wrong decisions are part of life. Being able to make them work anyway is one of the abilities of those who are successful.” — Warren Buffett
“Instead of asking how many tasks you can tackle given your working hours, ask how many you can ditch given what you must do to excel.” — Morten Hansen
“I know the plans I have for you, says the Lord. Plans to prosper you and not harm you. Plans for a hope and a future.” - Jeremiah 29:11
Productivity: Task Timecards
Index Cards for time blocking and TD list management
Food & Drink
The perfect Sourdough English muffin recipe. Very low effort and absolutely delicious.