The Market & Rate Cuts
ANOTHER INTERESTING WEEK AHEAD FOR STOCKS & BONDS: POWELL SPEAKS FRIDAY :)
Photo: Evan@StockMKTNewz
THE JACKSON HOLE Symposium is attended by central banks around the world and generally brings market volatility with it. It’s a great week to be informed on what’s going on in the market since agents and customers will be hearing the media talking about the market even more than usual.
Although the next Fed interest rate decision is due on September 18, markets seem to already be pricing in 3 or 4 quarter point cuts this year. With so much pushing and pulling on the market (low demand, increase housing appreciation, Japan raising rates, jobs numbers, low inventory, and 3 or 4 rate cuts priced in), this week’s symposium could be the fuel on the fire the market doesn’t need.
There is a divide in expectations on the anticipated rate increases. Some anticipate a rate cut due to soft economic indicators, while others, including Fed officials, suggest a more cautious approach. However, the yield curve's inversion (the longest inversion since 1929) has increased concerns of a major recession. Although interpretations of what this means does vary, it’s hard to deny that historically this means that a major recession could be near.
Believe it or not, I’m hoping Powell continues to hold the “higher for longer” line at least long enough to control rate volatility.
Notes that Resonated
Don’t measure the size of the mountain; talk to the One who can move it. -Max Lucado
Your mind will always believe everything you tell it. Feed it faith, truth, & love
Growth and change can be painful, but nothing is more painful than being stuck
Nothing worthwhile comes without a little discomfort
Always be grateful and never content
Optimization is a ritual not a task (what part of your systems do you need to improve)
Broken systems break good people
Are you living a way that will leave a legacy?
Productivity: APPLE NOTES Upgraded!
I’ve been a huge fan of the iPad app notability and its ability to manage my notes digitally. I originally looked for a note taking solution because the native app “apple notes” was so limited. I have recently discovered how impressive apple notes has become. Notability still has a slight edge over the apple notes handwriting tool, but it will see some massive updates (including AI enable legibility tool) in September. Because apple always does such a great job with seamless integration it really has become a powerhouse of a note collection and storage tool. The two videos below are great ways to quickly discover its abilities.
Split screen shortcuts, swipe corner gestures, scan text, link notes, text replacement, lock screen open notes, swipe screen shot, document mark-ups, quick notes, webpage links, write on black screen.
Apple notes tips and tricks: quick notes formatting
Major Recession Coming?
Many believe that Warren Buffett’s actions (selling off stocks and retaining cash) seem to be predicting a major recession. This video delves into historical trends, interest rate impacts, and the precarious global economy to shed light on why Buffett's cautious strategy might be a warning we can't ignore. Warren Buffett: The Depression That Will Change a Generation
Will Japanese owned US Home building companies be in trouble without 0% rates?
The last few minutes of this video are insightful on the Japan/ US lending dynamics. Could this hurt Japanese owned building companies? https://youtu.be/sfd46d0ebog?si=TmhJiivWnXOu4I8R (jump to min 6:22 of the Buffet video). Some of these Japanese companies were already slightly downgraded in June 2024 because of lower US housing demand, lower profitability and large acquisitions mostly financed by debt. Since that time, Japan has begun to raise rates, which could increase negativity in the business.
WARNING: This is the longest yield curve inversion since 1929- What does it mean for bonds?
Housing Continues to Appreciate:
The total value of US real estate hit a new record of $49.6 trillion in June. Although this is a 6.6% increase, or $3.1 trillion, over the last 12 months, according to Redfin, which is a more normalized annual appreciation increase, it’s worth noting that the total value of US homes has DOUBLED in 8 years and is up a massive ~65% since 2020. It’s a crazy market and it’s all about the supply and builder incentives.
Everyone expects rates to drop & the Fed to cut in September:
Top Quotes
"If you don't heal from what hurt you, you'll bleed on people who didn't cut you." -The Good Quote
“We are all going to have pain, but misery is optional. We can decide how we will react to the pain that inevitably comes to us all.” -Barbara Johnson
“Clarity about what matters provides clarity about what does not.” — Deep Work by Cal Newport
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Things to Discover
Good account to follow for Mortgage post ideas and scripts for borrower/ realtor conversations
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C9yIr4eSCqd/?igsh=dzVneGtuMTd1ZzB1
(why buy now reel)
Food & Drink
Hacks to extend the life of your fruits and veggies.
Cool Stuff
Cute birthday cake with action for mailer gifts and corporate gifting
