Is the Tide Turning?

It’s that time of year again…. where everyone releases predictions on what to expect for the market in 2023. Things are pretty consistent with the last few years and particularly in line with the last couple of quarters. The predictions are ALL OVER the map. But based on all the data, it seems that while we can still expect a challenging road ahead of us in 2023, the tide may be beginning to turn. It's the perfect time to make sure you are prepared and positioned to take advantage of the turn. 

Jan. 2023 Housing Market Notes and Talking Points:

Buyers are still mourning the loss of low rates- but are starting to settle on this being the new norm

We are on the 10th consecutive week of mortgage rates averaging below 7%. This stability in rates is giving consumers a bit more confidence about where the market is right now

Rates are down .93% from the November peak

With market fears and volatility reducing, the spread between the 10year Treasury and the 30 years fixed will reduce rate which will lower rates. (Providing nothing changes in the markets)

Homebuilders now represent over 30% of overall housing inventory

roughly 40% of builders have already lowered home prices between five and 15%

The market is still considered to be $4million short in-home supply

Newly listed homes are down 29.8% YOY (supply is still tight)

Mortgage purchase applications are up 28% since November

Most economists believe rates will moderate

Chief economists Lawrence Yun (NAR) expects to see buyers return in upcoming months

Over 11,000 homes sell everyday… there is plenty of business to keep you going

Inventory has stayed tight because foreclosures are less than 2% of sales and existing homeowners are reluctant to sell their homes and give up a below 5% rate

The market still only has 3.3 months of inventory. (a healthy market is roughly 6.5%)

Notes that Resonated

  • Want to win more? Train your brain to see all the little wins/ successes you have during the day… what you see is what you get

  • Where Focus Goes... Where focus goes, energy flows. — Sir Anthony Robbins

  • What do you focus on? What gets your attention throughout the day…. What you focus on expands so be careful where your attention goes

  • Do you see yourself from your current circumstances or where you want to be?

  • Think once before investing and twice before spending- Alex Homozzi. (In our current market its still a time to keep investing but also a time to curve your spending and eliminate

  • You must be willing to sit in discomfort for an extended period to be in a position to win

  • Play one game and play it well (do you have a niche? Are you an expert in your area? If not figure out how to become one. This will really help you win in this market)

  • Being afraid to choose is worse than making the wrong decision. Don’t let decision paralyze you.

  • In any business, it’s just as important to know what to work on as it is to know how you’re going to do it. Doing low-priority tasks efficiently doesn’t move the needle

  • Great communicators don’t start with what they know; they start with what the audience knows.

  • Life is always about the here and now… don’t live your life as if the future is more important than the now…. The now will be gone and the future may never come.

  • Rates are predicted to continue to decline and most expect the 30yr to range between 6.375 in Q1 and end around 5.75 in Q4 in 2023

2023 Business Hacks to grow your business

Chaos creates opportunities- take advantage of your competitors current state of fear and lack of focus

  1. Evaluate your expenses- figure out where you are wasting money that’s does not bring in revenue and cut it.

  2. Evaluate where your revenue is coming from- look at your applications and leads. Find out where most of your revenue has come from in the last 12 months. Double down on strategies to increase it

  3. Deploy capital based on your highest return- once you know where your revenue is coming from and where you are wasting money. Work on marketing strategies that can increase your revenue in the areas that you have had success and invest in these areas.

  4. Build and/or revamp your systems- the last few years have left us with little time to work on our business. With a slower market, now is the time to revamp your systems and improve efficiencies. Spend at least 3 hour a week working “ON” your business and not in your business.

  5. Upgrade talent around you- For the last few years we have had to make do with whatever talent we had on the team. We did not have the luxury to find the best talent we could afford. Now is the time to evaluate your team and upgrade where needed.

  6. Creating more conversations- Stop focusing on the lagging indicator of how many loans you are closing. Focus on how many qualified conversations you are having daily. The more customers, realtors, and builders you connect with, the more activity and volume it will create.

  7. Invest while others pause- While others are taking a pause in investing in marketing, education, and sales activities you need to be investing in these areas. After Superbowl weekend marks the kickoff of the selling season. Be a head of the game and invest in advance of the volume increasing

  8. Buy more lunches and less leads- The real estate business is still about relationships. If you are not having lunch 2-3 times a week advancing relationship you’re missing out on solid loyal business that increase your volume.

  9. Invest time in social- use social media as a way to keep your name and face in front of your referral partners. Its free and it scales easily. Post content that is about them not all about you. What can you do or say to help them in this market

Things read:

Market Update information-

2023 US housing market forecasts :  https://fortune.com/2023/01/28/housing-market-home-prices-forecast-predictions-2023-2024-updated/ 

 https://fortune.com/2023/01/25/housing-market-recession-could-be-bottoming-out-what-does-it-mean-for-home-prices-zonda-ali-wolf/ 

Podcasts I listened to:

‎All the Hacks: Top Ways to Make This Year Amazing and Seven Simple Questions for Your Annual Review with Sahil Bloom on Apple Podcasts

‎Wharton Business Daily: Why Interest Rates Are Having a Huge Impact on Home Sale Volumes on Apple Podcasts

Videos watched:

Life is short…Time is precious. How are you spending it? 

​Life is short…Time is precious. How are you spending it? 

 https://youtu.be/I8IK3ZeWOjU 

This is a good video that challenges our perspective of time and how we spend it- our relationship with time definetly changes as we get older. When we are a child… time is limitless. The older we get, the more we begin to appreciate that time is a limited resource.

Top Quotes:

"The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it." - Henry David Thoreau Time is precious trade carefully

"We don’t learn from experience we learn from reflecting on experience." - John Duey

"God can see needs and hazards we can’t. He works to meet our needs and protect us. We must trust that his way is best" -Max Lucado

Food & Drink…. TORTAS!

This week I pulled out a simple Mexican Torta sandwich from my recipe archives. It’s been a while, but this simple meal is great way to upscale your lunch or made a hearty but simple dinner. - this can be made with ground beef, pork carnitas, beef chicken, or chicken fried chicken. It’s also a fast delicious way to use up left over steak/chicken from the day before. We usually make ours with Ham, cheese, refried beans, avocado, lettuce tomato, pickled jalapenos, and salsa on the side. I included a few links of different recipes. As a side note the best place to get the torta bread is at a Mexican grocery store or often Walmart has really nice soft Bolillo bread. The soft bread roll makes all the difference.

 Mexican Torta Sandwiches (Tortas Mexicanas) 

 Torta de Jamón Mexicana 

 LONCHES | Ground Beef Tortas Recipe | Mexican Style Sandwiches Recipe 

 Carne Asada Torta | Spoon Fork Bacon 

Cool Stuff:

This is one of the coolest Van conversions I have seen. #vanlife may be calling my name 😊

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Pushing Past the Comfort & Adjust your Sails

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The year of the Rabbit